EFFET de SERRE du aux EMISSIONS de CO²
EFFETS du Réchauffement planétaire sur l'élèvation du niveau des mers,
celui-ci pourrait atteindre les 80cm à l'horizon 2100...
Figure
11.12: Global average sea level rise 1990 to 2100 for the SRES scenarios.
Thermal expansion and land ice changes were calculated using a simple climate
model calibrated separately for each of seven AOGCMs, and contributions from
changes in permafrost, the effect of sediment deposition and the long-term
adjustment of the ice sheets to past climate change were added. Each of the six
lines appearing in the key is the average of AOGCMs for one of the six
illustrative scenarios. The region in dark shading shows the range of the
average of AOGCMs for all 35 SRES scenarios. The region in light shading shows
the range of all AOGCMs for all 35 scenarios. The region delimited by the
outermost lines shows the range of all AOGCMs and scenarios including
uncertainty in land-ice changes, permafrost changes and sediment deposition.
Note that this range does not allow for uncertainty relating to ice-dynamical
changes in the West Antarctic ice sheet. See 11.5.4.3 for a full
discussion. The bars show the range in 2100 of all AOGCMs for the six
illustrative scenarios
