Introduction and explanation of greenhouse gas (GHG) graphics and data

This set of graphics was produced in preparation for the seventh Conference of the Parties (COP-7) to the UNFCCC held in Marrakesh, Morocco 29th October to 9th November 2001. They are based on several UNFCCC Secretariat documents compiling data from submissions by Annex I countries; these include First and Second National Communications, as well as annual national inventory data. Additional sources include updated reports from individual countries; exceptions are noted on the graphs.

Graphical representation of greenhouse gas emissions

The graphs feature actual (1990-1999) and projected (2000, 2010) emissions of the six greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆). The emissions are aggregated and represented as CO₂ equivalents in million tonnes (1012); please note that in UNFCCC documents, emissions are measured in gigagrams (10⁹).

The graphs are in million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent emissions versus time - 1990 (base year) to 2010 (or Kyoto target period 2008-2012). The white lines represent actual data for the period 1990-1999); these are compiled in the: Table B1 FCCC/SBI/2001/13.

The black lines represent 'with measures' projected emissions for 1990 and 2010, as stated in the 'Second compilation and synthesis of second national communications: Table C6 (FCCC/CP/1998/11/Add.2), except where noted. Please note that actual and projections data are based on different sources and calculations (as noted in 'Data Sources'), resulting in different 1990 base levels in the graphs.

The orange lines delineate the binding reduction commitments or emissions targets for the 2008-2012 period; these are expressed in percentages of decrease or increase from the base year (1990 unless otherwise noted in source tables) that were requested or allowed in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol.

The intervals between the black and the orange lines highlight the percent differences between estimated 'with measures' emissions levels for 2010 and the Kyoto emissions targets set for individual countries.

Calculations 

In order to calculate the percent reductions (or increases) required to reach Kyoto targets by 2008-2012, projections data in Table C6 of the FCCC/CP/1998/11/Add.2 report were primarily used (see 'Exceptions'). Projection base levels for 1990 were multiplied by the reduction commitments of Annex I countries to find their Kyoto targets (million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent emissions); 1990 actual emissions data were used for in some cases due to a lack of projections data (see ‘Exceptions’). Please note that the UNFCCC has yet to decide if countries should be allowed to change the 1990 base levels to be used for future calculations. Projected emissions for 2010 were then subtracted from the Kyoto targets; the results were subsequently divided by the same 2010 projected emissions to find the percent reductions (or increases) required to reach Kyoto targets by 2010.

Exceptions

Annex I countries missing actual (1990-1999) aggregate CO₂ equivalent emissions data for certain years, as noted in the graphs:

      Croatia (1990-1999); no graph
      Liechtenstein (1991-1999); no graph
      Lithuania (1991-1997 and 1999)
      Luxembourg (1991-1993, 1996-1998)
      Romania (1995-1999)
      Russian Federation (1991-1993, 1997-1999)
      Slovenia (1991-1999); no graph

Data gaps between years have been extrapolated by the UNFCCC for some of these countries:

      Lithuania (1991-19979
      Luxembourg (1991-1993, 1996-1998)
      Russian Federation (1991-1993)

Annex I countries that do not have projected emissions or % required reductions plotted on the graphs due to the lack of sufficient projections data (1990 actual data were used to plot Kyoto targets instead, as noted on the graphs):

      Austria
      Belgium
      Estonia
      Greece
      Hungary
      Monaco
      Poland
      Romania

Projections data for Norway: Information from FCCC/SBI/2000/11, Table B1 and from the State of the Environment Norway report of the Norwegian Pollution Control Authority (SFT), http://www.mistin.dep.no/ was used to calculate the percent reduction required to reach its Kyoto target by 2008-2012; this includes inventory data as well as the recently revised estimated percentage of increase in CO₂ emissions by 2010, respectively. The inventory data and the projections data for 1990 were considered to be of the same value; this information was the most current and readily available for Norway.

Data sources

The data for these graphs were collected from several UNFCCC documents, except as noted above; the most current and usable data that were available within the given time frame were used in preparing this set of graphs.

However, some variability in the quality of information may have caused some discrepancies in the data used; for example, the methodology for estimating the actual emissions may have changed within the time series, and may not have been reflected in the data. In FCCC/SBI/2000/11, the UNFCCC Secretariat notes that "as not all Annex I countries provided recent submissions, or did not include data for all years in their most recent submissions, data have been compiled for the period 1990-1998 from various sources"; therefore, "trends in emissions may not be consistent".

In FCCC/CP/1998/11/Add.2, the Secretariat expresses that "projections provided by Parties are not comparable. In some cases there are differences in the 1990 (or base year) emission figures for inventories and those used for projections. These differences are due to rounding, calibration of models, updating of inventories subsequent to the projections analysis, and the fact that some projections are only a subset of the information contained in Parties' inventories." Furthermore, "some differences are also due to the fact that, in striving to ensure consistency and comparability of results, the secretariat has had to convert some of the estimates reported so that they concur with the guidelines for preparation of national communications". Therefore, projected aggregate emissions (Table C.6) are not necessarily the sum of projected individual gases reported in Tables C.1-5.3. In addressing these issues, the Secretariat notes that the quality and usefulness of the national communications are continuously being improved by the COP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), particularly as "many methodological and practical problems remain for the calculation of inventories. Scientific uncertainty and data collection both pose serious difficulties."

"With measures" projections or projection scenarios that best represent or reflect the implementation of measures were used in calculating the projections figures in FCCC/CP/1998/11/Add.2; exceptions are noted under 'Explanatory notes' on pages 84-88 of the same report.

Emissions/removals data for the land-use change and forestry sector are not included in any data used.

Glossary

Annex I countries: a list of countries that are Parties to the Convention. The list includes most members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) plus the states of Central and Eastern Europe in Annex I of the Convention.

Annex B: Party Quantified emission limitations or reduction commitments of Annex I countries, reported in percentage of base year or period in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol to the Convention.

Base Year: The year upon which commitments to reduce emissions are based. The base year for nearly all countries is 1990; exceptions include some countries with economies in transition, such as Bulgaria (1988); Hungary (the average of 1985-1987); Poland (1988) and Romania (1989).

Binding emissions targets or Party Quantified emission limitations or reduction commitments. These are expressed as percentages of base year emissions in Annex Kyoto target: Same as the binding emissions target.

National Communications: The Convention requires its members to submit "national communications" to the Conference of the Parties (COP) on a regular basis. This information about national greenhouse gas emissions, international cooperation and national activities is reviewed periodically so that the Parties can track the Convention's effectiveness and draw lessons for future national and global action.

With-measures scenario: Projection scenario for emissions, taking into consideration proposed or potential measures for mitigating emissions.

Without-measures scenario: Projection scenario for emissions, not assuming any implementation of measures for mitigating emissions.

Ce document est à rapprocher du rapport cité "International Panel on Climate Change" auquel vous trouverez accès dans la liste des liens du site ADEP << www.ipcc.ch>> notamment ou UNEP - grida.no etc, sites ONU...

Human impact: how we trigger global warming, and what each individual can do about it

Suzanne Elston

Global warming is arguably the biggest environmental problem that we face in the 21st century.

The scientific consensus is that human activity is altering the planet's climate.

Reports from the International Panel on Climate Change - the key scientific body organized by the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization - have made it clear that the warming atmosphere will cause dramatic changes that will affect every corner of the earth.

More frequent and extreme weather events can be expected, including floods, heat waves, windstorms, droughts and disruption in water supplies. As a result, serious diseases like malaria and yellow fever will spread. Natural resource industries such as agriculture, fishing and forestry will be impacted.
As polar ice caps melt and sea levels rise, entire island nations will disappear. Coastal flooding will leave hundreds of thousands homeless - mostly in poor, developing countries.

Despite the urgent warnings of the scientific community, our political leaders have stalled in their attempts to reduce carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. The Bush administration’s withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol was both disappointing and predictable. For almost a decade, the leaders of the world have been unable to fulfill the promises that they made at the Earth Summit in 1992 to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the primary cause of global warming.

In 1997, world leaders met in Kyoto, Japan to review the goals they had set in Rio five years earlier. But rather than seeing a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the net amount of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere had increased substantially.
The National Energy Information Center reports that in the U.S. alone, CO2 emissions increased 10.7 percent from 1990 to 1997. In light of this, the Kyoto Protocol offered a watered down version of the Earth Summit’s goals in an attempt to reach an attainable reduction target.

The U.S. is the largest single source of fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions.
According to Online Trends, U.S. emissions reached an all-time high of 1447 million metric tons of carbon in 1996. As a result, without U.S. participation, critics say that the Kyoto Protocol is doomed to failure. But despite the U.S. withdrawal, the remaining Kyoto partners will meet again in Bonn, Germany, this summer in an attempt to breathe some life into the agreement.

While governments attempt to make some progress toward mitigating the impacts of global warming, corporations are beginning to view climate change as a business opportunity. Increasing energy prices are forcing companies to look at ways to cut consumption and new energy technologies are promising to open up business markets for innovative companies.

Car giants Toyota and Honda have invested heavily in producing hybrid cars that will significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and corporations like IBM, Johnson & Johnson and Polaroid have all committed to reducing their carbon dioxide emissions well below the Kyoto target. (To find out more see “Climate Savers”)

Individually, we can also make a difference. Carbon dioxide emissions from human activity are the largest source of greenhouse gases contributing to global warming. The average American is responsible for about 20 tons of carbon dioxide emissions each year, a far greater volume per capita than that of any other industrialized country. Switching to fuel-efficient vehicles, installing energy efficient lighting and purchasing newer, more efficient appliances are all ways that we cut carbon dioxide emissions and fuel the economy.

Changing our every day habits can also help reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
Slowing down when we drive, car pooling, cycling or taking public transit to work are all ways to reduce our consumption of fuel fuels.
Recycling saves 70 to 90 percent of the energy and pollution - including CO2 - used to created virgin materials. Planting trees around your home can cut cooling costs by up to 40 percent, further reducing our energy needs.

These are all small steps, but collectively they can have a significant impact.

.......

(Chaque citoyen conscient des excès qu'il peut engendrer, par négligence ou "facilité", liés à son comportement individuel, sur l'avenir de sa descendance et par conséquence sur l'humanité toute entière, ne peut qu'être appelé à réflechir sur ce grave problème .)